Authors - Malay Shah, Sayal Goyal, Rashmi Rane, Ruhi Patankar, Sarika Bobde, Arnav Jain Abstract - This study investigates the impact of risk-taking on football match outcomes, focusing on player substitutions. The analysis reveals that risk-taking propensity peaks when a team is trailing by 2-3 goals and diminishes when leading by the same margin. Younger managers outperform middle-aged ones in risky decisions, while older managers excel in later substitutions. Additionally, a manager's tenure with the team increases the effectiveness of risk-taking, particularly in earlier substitutions and stronger teams. This study also emphasizes the importance of mental state in player performance, proposing a framework combining Match Score Analysis (Kaplan-Meier Fitter) and Score Analysis to evaluate players' mental stability and survival rates during the game. By integrating these models, teams can make better-informed decisions regarding substitutions, considering both past performance and mental health, ultimately enhancing match outcomes. This research underscores the synergistic potential of combining black-box causal machine learning with interpretable models, offering valuable insights for football management and beyond.
